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Assessing the economic impact of artificial intelligence

Assessing the economic impact of artificial intelligence

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SUMMARY

This economic AI assessment predicts different AI adoption strategic plans could widen the wealth gap between countries, companies, and workers.

This paper presents a model for measuring AI’s economic impact on automation, shifting job skills, and AI usage by companies. Countries are at different stages of AI adoption and application. In comparison to current AI use benefits, leading countries can add 20 to 25 percent in net economic benefits. On the other hand, developing countries may capture 5 to 15 percent. To strengthen AI-related foundations and enablers, countries can adopt proactive policies.

Various AI adoption strategies among businesses may lead to performance gaps between early adopters, slow adopters, and non-adopters. By 2030, front runners could potentially double their profits, which implies additional annual net cash flow growth of about 6 percent for at least one decade. At the other end of the spectrum are stragglers that fail to adopt AI technologies at all or use them in their enterprises by 2030. This group may experience around a 20 percent decline in their cash flow in comparison to today’s levels. 

 A widening gap may also occur among individual workers. Job profiles characterized by repetitive tasks and low digital skills may experience the largest decline, from about 40 percent to nearly 30 percent by 2030. The largest gain in share may happen in non-repetitive activities that require high digital skills, rising from close to 40 percent to more than 50 percent. These shifts in employment would have an impact on wages.

 Uneven AI development and deployment could deepen inequality within societies. According to this assessment, the benefits of AI are likely to be distributed unequally if the development and deployment of these technologies are not handled effectively.

 

OUTLINE

Foreword

Executive summary

The AI revolution

How to evaluate the economic effect of AI

AI’s potential to drive economic growth

AI can widen economic gaps

Conclusion

Appendices

DETAILS

Overview

Researchfinder Rating
5 out of 5 stars
Title
Assessing the economic impact of artificial intelligence
Region
Global
Published
Sept. 30, 2018
Publisher
ITU
Price
FREE
Language
ENGLISH

Content

Number of Pages
80
Number of Tables
0
Number of Exhibits
26
Topics
ai
Tags
adoption survey, AI survey, artificial intelligence, ITU, workforce survey
Methodology
This research paper uses a micro-to-macro approach to simulates the economic effects of AI: 1) Use data sources, including corporate surveys, 2) use the survey data to prepare a econometric model based on AI’s competitive and strategic value, 3) simulate “gross” GDP effect, 4) simulate “net” GDP effect, 5) simulate effects on labor markets, 6) differentiate between countries, and 7) analyse effects of key variables.
EVALUATION

This document is a complete call-to-action for countries, businesses, and workforces interested in how AI can positively impact service, profits, and long-term growth.

The document is well-organized and professionally designed. The table of contents is easy to navigate. The overall methodology is robust and includes visual information to supplement observations. The publishers include robust data sets and research.

Pros

  • Well-organized
  • Extensive research and methodology
  • Clear and connected conclusions

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